Date: 5th June 2023
Afternoon All,
Just a very quick update today.
The Bitcoin price has been going sideways since my last update, which is not unusual or unexpected.
Usually, after a period of sideways price action, there is a big move to either the up or downside. Typically its to the upside in bull markets and to the downside in bear markets, although I wouldn’t like to make a call which way it will break in the short term.
Frankly, I think its irrelevant to our strategy anyway.
What I will say is that it was impressive how Bitcoin acted “correctly” when several US banks collapsed recently, when it roughly doubled in price from its lows.
Currently there is no change in allocation and we still sit at 77.15% in Bitcoin and 22.85% in cash ready to buy a final “flush out” if it happens.
I’m far from a technical analyst, but rather a long term Investor who’s interested in the macro picture rather than in week-to-week or month-to-month price moves.
If you’re also interested in longer term market analysis, I’d recommend starting with this 20 minute video of The Rational Root, which is a pseudonym for a well known and respected anaylist in the Bitcoin space.
He does a much better job of looking at the Bitcoin cycle analysis than I could myself :-)
It won’t make sense to everyone — especially if you aren’t used to looking at charts etc — but if you’re interested, here it is:
The TLDR is that it looks like we are in the beginning stages of a bull cycle and that the cycle lows are already in. If Bitcoin acts the same was as it has in the past, we should be looking for a 6 figure price in this cycle, although macro economic factors (a recession for example) could mean that it acts differently — either delaying the cycle or accelerating it — which has been my opinion for a long time.
All the best,
Adam